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众说纷纭:2015年来第一张反对票 美联储没能一锤定音

2015-09-18 10:10:45 来源:
众说纷纭:2015年来第一张反对票 美联储没能一锤定音
 

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 据彭博社报道,美联储在万众瞩目中决定按兵不动,维持2008年以来的近零利率。然而今年来联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)中无人持异议的局面被打破,里士满联储银行行长Jeffrey M. Lacker在表决中投票反对维持利率不变,主张将联邦基金利率目标区间上调25个基点。

虽然同样是维持利率不变,然而通过对比7月29日的FOMC会议声明,除有决策者持异议外,9月17日的声明在表述中还出现了以下几点显著变化:

国际形势

9月17日声明中新增了“最近全球经济和金融动态可能会对经济活动略有抑制,而且很可能会对近期通胀构成进一步下行压力”的表述

企业固定投资

9月17日称“一直温和增长”

7月29日的描述为“依然疲软”

基于市场的通胀补偿指标

9月17日的声明称这一指标“下跌”

7月29日则描述为“依然低企”

能源价格

9月17日对能源价格的下跌剔除了“先前”的时间表述

7月29日则有“先前”的强调

值得注意的是,9月和7月两份声明共同点更多:

目前0-0.25%的联邦基金利率目标区间依然合适

通胀继续低于委员会的长期目标

住宅领域进一步好转

劳动力市场继续好转,就业增长稳固且失业率下降

在适度的政策宽松之下,经济活动将以温和步伐扩张,其中劳动力市场指标会继续向委员会认为与其双重职责相一致的水平发展

劳动力资源利用不足的情况自年初以来消减

经济活动以及劳动力市场展望方面的风险接近平衡

在看到劳动力市场有了某种程度进一步好转且对通胀在中期将升向其2%目标方面抱有合理信心时,上调联邦基金利率目标区间将是合适之举

将所持机构债券与机构抵押贷款支持证券的到期本金再投资到机构抵押贷款支持证券,并在标售时将到期国债展期

即使在就业和通胀接近与其法定职责相一致水平的情况下,经济状况在一段时间内可能有理由让委员会将联邦基金目标利率维持在其认为长期正常的水平之下

众说纷纭:

彭博经济学家:美联储因通胀和全球经济忧虑而按兵不动

声明保留了对国际经济形势发展压制美国前景的更深忧虑,并且注意到通胀率在最终向2%的联储目标回升前可能先有所回落,因暂时性因素(能源和进口价格)再度浮现

彭博策略师:FOMC政策声明呈现鸽派基调

加入有关全球形势的表述暗示美联储最早在2016年前都不会加息

CIBC:FOMC声明暗示“渐进紧缩周期已经接近”

利率预测依然显示FOMC多数成员认为今年加息“适宜”,尽管人数比上次少

高盛:美联储预测显示转向今年加息一次

FOMC政策声明暗示对金融市场和国际形势的担忧加剧

德意志银行:FOMC点阵图符合“鹰派基调但维持利率不变”的普遍预期

FOMC点阵图预期与今年加息“大门敞开”的观点相符

东方汇理:美联储鸽派论调有助于提升雷亚尔风险偏好

鸽派结果应该会有助于提升目前的风险偏好

巴克莱:FOMC将暗示12月份加息该行维持明年3月加息的观点

FOMC政策声明比预期略显鸽派,但相信大多数决策人士预计今年加息

注:FOMC利率决策表决中上一次出现异议还是在2014年12月17日结束的会议上,当时Richard W. Fisher、Narayana Kocherlakota和Charles I. Plosser投票反对维持利率不变

以下是美联储联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)周三在华盛顿发布的政策声明全文:

自联邦公开市场委员会7月份会议以来收到的信息显示,经济活动在以温和步伐扩张。居民开支和商业固定投资一直在温和增长,住宅领域进一步好转;然而,净出口一直疲软。劳动力市场继续好转,就业增长稳固且失业率下降。整体而言,劳动力市场指标显示劳动力资源利用不足的情况自年初以来消减。通胀继续低于委员会的长期目标,在部分程度上反映了能源价格以及非能源进口产品价格的下跌。基于市场的通胀补偿指标下跌; 基于调查的长期通胀预期指标保持稳定。

为履行其法定职责,委员会寻求促进充分就业并保持物价稳定。最近全球经济和金融动态可能会对经济活动略有抑制,而且很可能会对近期通胀构成进一步下行压力。尽管如此,委员会预计,在适度的政策宽松之下,经济活动将以温和步伐扩张,其中劳动力市场指标会继续向委员会认为与其双重职责相一致的水平发展。委员会继续认为,经济活动以及劳动力市场展望方面的风险接近平衡,但正在监测海外动态。虽然预计通胀近期内将维持在最近的低水平附近,但委员会预计,随着劳动力市场进一步好转以及能源与进口产品价格下跌的临时影响消退,通胀在中期内会逐步升向2%。委员会将继续密切监测通胀动态。

为支持形势持续向充分就业以及物价稳定的目标发展,委员会周三确认以下看法:目前0-0.25%的联邦基金利率目标区间依然合适。在确定要将这一目标区间维持多长时间方面,委员会将评估形势朝其充分就业以及2%通胀目标发展的情况——包括已实现情况和预期情况。这方面的评估将考虑广泛的一系列信息,包括衡量劳动力市场状况的指标、通胀压力与通胀预期指标以及金融和国际动态方面的数据。委员会认为,在看到劳动力市场有些进一步好转且对通胀在中期将升向其2%目标方面抱有合理信心时,上调联邦基金利率目标区间将是合适之举。

委员会维持这一现有政策:将所持机构债券与机构抵押贷款支持证券的到期本金再投资到机构抵押贷款支持证券,并在标售时将到期国债展期。这一政策通过将委员会所持长期证券维持在可观水平,应该会有助于保持宽松的金融状况。

在决定要开始取消宽松政策时,委员会将采取平衡而且与其充分就业以及2%的通胀率这些长期目标相一致的方式。委员会目前预计,即使在就业和通胀接近与其法定职责相一致水平的情况下,经济状况在一段时间内可能有理由让委员会将联邦基金目标利率维持在其认为长期正常的水平之下。

投票支持联邦公开市场委员会本次货币政策行动的成员为:主席珍妮特· 耶伦、副主席威廉姆·杜德利、Lael Brainard、Charles L.

Evans、Stanley Fischer、Dennis P. Lockhart、Jerome H.

Powell、Daniel K. Tarullo以及John C. Williams。Jeffrey M. Lacker 投票反对此次行动,他支持在本次会议上将联邦基金利率目标区间上调25个基点。

原文

Release Date: September 17, 2015

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July suggests that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace. Household spending and business fixed investment have been increasing moderately, and the housing sector has improved further; however, net exports have been soft. The labor market continued to improve, with solid job gains and declining unemployment. On balance, labor market indicators show that underutilization of labor resources has diminished since early this year. Inflation has continued to run below the Committee's longer-run objective, partly reflecting declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation moved lower; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. Recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term. Nonetheless, the Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators continuing to move toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced but is monitoring developments abroad. Inflation is anticipated to remain near its recent low level in the near term but the Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent over the medium term as the labor market improves further and the transitory effects of declines in energy and import prices dissipate. The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain this target range, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen some further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term.

The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Dennis P. Lockhart; Jerome H. Powell; Daniel K. Tarullo; and John C. Williams. Voting against the action was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who preferred to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points at this meeting.



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